WL20R MEA Model: Middle East North Africa

 

















Notes


WL20R MEA Model Measurement Matrix



The WL20R MEA Model has three component state variables that explain over 99% of the variation in the indicators: MEA1 = Overall Growth, MEA2 = (0.8746 LU - 0.361 EG - 0.2320 CO2) and (3) MEA3 = (0.708 GDP - 0.3215 N).


WL20R State Space BAU Model


The WL20R MEA BAU System Matrix (F) is unstable but can be stabilized by by reducing groth rates (F[2,2] = F[3,3] = 0.90). The World System Input models is stable (see below).

WL20R MEA AIC Statistic


In the short-term, the MEAL20R Model is a Random Walk (RW). The attractor path for the MEAL20R Model is Business-as-Usual (BAU). All of the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) statistics are closely group and overlapping and other models might be useful for specific purposes.

MEA L20R World System Input


The model is nonlinear, cyclical and stable.





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