Posts

World-System (1950-2010) How Does the Economy of China Work?

Image
  May 15, 2025  Trump returns to the U.S. after 2-day trip to China - NPR Continuing Geopolitical tensions between China and the US suggest that the US does not understand how China's System works. Concepts from ECON101 ( Socialism , Communism , Command Economy , etc.) make it difficult for Capitalist Politicians to understand what they are dealing with ( President Trump seems to like dealing with Authoritarian Leaders because it feels like dealing with the head of a large Conglomerate --until it doesn't). In this post, I'll take the perspective of Systems Theory which is free of prior misconceptions. The Economy of China is a Malthusian Economy that requires Authoritarian control over birth rates (see the  Two Child Policy ) to keep the labor force employed without risking high unemployment. The economy also requires control over energy use and Globalization to manage unemployment. Human Development is not a priority in Malthusian Economies. ChatGPT characterizes ...
Post a Comment
Read more

Afghanistan: Modern Economic History

Image
  Notes AF_L20 Measurement Model (Growth-Q) (EG+EF-CO2) (CO2+EG-EF)
Post a Comment
Read more

Desert Storm: The Gulf War

Image
 
Post a Comment
Read more

Obama's War

Image
 
Post a Comment
Read more

WL20R MEA Model: Middle East North Africa

Image
  Notes WL20R MEA Model Measurement Matrix The WL20R MEA Model has three component state variables that explain over 99% of the variation in the indicators: MEA1 = Overall Growth, MEA2 = (0.8746 LU - 0.361 EG - 0.2320 CO2) and (3) MEA3 = (0.708 GDP - 0.3215 N). WL20R State Space BAU Model The WL20R MEA BAU System Matrix ( F) is unstable but can be stabilized by by reducing groth rates ( F [2,2] = F [3,3] = 0.90). The World System Input models is stable (see below). WL20R MEA AIC Statistic In the short-term, the MEAL20R Mode l is a Random Walk ( RW ). The attractor path for the MEAL20R Model is Business-as-Usual (BAU). All of the Akaike Information Criterion ( AIC ) statistics are closely group and overlapping and other models might be useful for specific purposes. MEA L20R World System Input The model is nonlinear, cyclical and stable.
Post a Comment
Read more

World-System (1950-2142) How Does the Economy of Russia Work?

Image
I continually encounter articles suggesting that the Russian Economy is in collapse mode (see the Readings below). Google AI reaches a similar conclusion: My own model of the Russian Economy is strongly cyclical and unstable (see graphic at the beginning of the post, the RUL20 model , and my Blog Roll: Russia ) and is expected to start collapsing again around 2050.**   This post is devoted to explaining how the  RUL20 BAU model  works. The state space has an Overall Growth Component (RU1), a Globalization-Energy Controller and a GDP-Malthusian-Unemployment Controller (see the RUL20 Measurement Matrix below). The Overall Growth Component and Controllers make sense from the standpoint of the Economy of Russia . Russia is a  petrostate  with a large land area and  twelve economic regions . The Moscow economy is the largest among the Russian Federation and, historically, decision making has been concentrated in the Kremlin. Conditions in regions such ...
Post a Comment
Read more

Technology Long Waves

Image
   The  Kondratiev Wave  is an important element of  World-Systems Theory . The graphic above is taken from  Andreas Goldschmidt  and gives historical specifics for technological cycles. Goldschmidt's formulation allows for the idea to be tested (one of the models I always test), is partially consistent with economic Growth theory (particularly if we do not assume a functional form for exogenous disembodied technological change in the  Solow-Swan Model ) and I can present some examples. The Iranian Economy prior to 1979  and associated  Tech Bubble .
Post a Comment
Read more