The Long Twentieth Century

  Notes WL20R MEA Model Measurement Matrix The WL20R MEA Model has three component state variables that explain over 99% of the variation in the indicators: MEA1 = Overall Growth, MEA2 = (0.8746 LU - 0.361 EG - 0.2320 CO2) and (3) MEA3 = (0.708 GDP - 0.3215 N). WL20R State Space BAU Model The WL20R MEA BAU System Matrix ( F) is unstable but can be stabilized by by reducing groth rates ( F [2,2] = F [3,3] = 0.90). The World System Input models is stable (see below). WL20R MEA AIC Statistic In the short-term, the MEAL20R Mode l is a Random Walk ( RW ). The attractor path for the MEAL20R Model is Business-as-Usual (BAU). All of the Akaike Information Criterion ( AIC ) statistics are closely group and overlapping and other models might be useful for specific purposes. MEA L20R World System Input The model is nonlinear, cyclical and stable.