The Long Twentieth Century

 

  Notes State Space Model Estimation The Measurement Matrix for the  state space models  was constructed using  Principal Components Analysis  with  standardized  data from the  World Development Indicators . The statistical analysis was conducted in an extension of the  dse package . The package is currently supported by an online portal ( here ) and can be downloaded, with the R-programming language, for any personal computer  here .  Code for the state space  Dynamic Component models (DCMs)  is available on my Google drive ( here ) and referenced in each post. Atlanta Fed Economy Now My approach to forecasting is similar to the  EconomyNow model used by the Atlanta Federal Reserve . Since the new Republican Administration is signaling that they would like to eliminate the Federal Reserve, the app might well not be available in the future. While the app is still available, there have been some interesting devel...

  Google AI responds when questioned about the "Long Twentieth Century": The phrase "the long twentieth century" refers to a period spanning roughly from the late 19th century to the early 21st century , characterized by profound transformations in global politics, economics, society, and technology.   For my purposes, the term can either mean (1) from 1900-2000 with projections to 2100 or    (2) from 1950 -2000 with projections to 2100. You can run estimated Dynamic Component statistical models for the periods at: The Long Twentieth Century (1900-2000+) The Late Modern (1950-2000+) A continually add models as I am able to document them in my blogs. Periodization For the Quantitative Historian, selecting a time period over which to display statistical data or estimate models is an interesting problem with no solution. My approach has been estimate multi-models over whatever period seems appropriate to the purple (from a decade to 2000 ye...